The complete list of 2019 stock recommendations

Deep sector expertise, vast networks of industry insiders, sophisticated spreadsheet models. The professionals have all these to do what every investor wants. To Beat the market. But do they? The equity research departments of AMCs, investment banks, wealth managers have already given their 2019 stock recommendations. Some foresee volatility in macro factors and therefore recommend staying with defensive sectors like FMCG, while others expect a capital goods revival, while some expect stocks with rural exposure to do well in an election year. This page tracks the 2019 stock picks of the major institutional investors along with their starting prices to

Read more

The 2018 professional stock picker’s report card

A positive 3% return on the benchmark NIFTY index for the calendar year sounds like a sleepy year for the markets. But any investor will tell you it was anything but sleepy. In fact, it felt a lot like one of those Hollywood horror-thrillers which starts with a group of attractive college-kids partying in a remote cabin in the woods. Everyone’s having the time of their lives. No one notices when the first one or two of them mysteriously disappear about 20 minutes into the movie. But soon they realise something is terribly wrong. Until the panic-stricken surviving few wish

Read more

Mountain, meet Molehill

ILFS default. Yes Bank succession disaster. Housing Finance Company Books Cooked. Jet Airways on the verge of default. It is carnage. If you have been following financial media over the last two weeks, we’re already at 2008-level crisis-alert levels. The wheels are coming off the India equities growth story and there are many obvious reasons why, we are being told, by patient experts. The problem is, they only started explaining how a combination of trade wars, impending elections and bond defaults explain the correction after it has been well underway. Now, I have no idea whether this is a complete reversal in

Read more

The TCI Momentum Portfolio

Labels On clothes, they are a shortcut to understanding everything of significance. Where and from what it was made, its dimensions, and most importantly, what it should and should not be exposed to in its ongoing wear and maintenance. For instance, did you know the five icons on the above label mean: Wash at below 40 C, Do not bleach, Do not tumble dry, Iron at medium temperature (two dots for medium) and Do not dry clean. On investors too, labels are a short-cut to understanding everything of significance. Where they come from, time they have spent being an investor,

Read more

Tough times don’t last, High ROC Companies do

Does an investing strategy that invests in high Return on Capital companies deliver better returns than the market? This post backtests the strategy by simulating investment in deciles of companies with varying ROCs. The results support the hypothesis that a strategy that invests in high ROC companies does better.

Read more

The most profitable industries in India in 2018

This post presents aggregated analysis of the most and least profitable industries in India in 2018. Profitability is described by different accounting metrics, each one with its own merits and drawbacks. EBITDA (Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) is useful when comparing companies within a sector where some participants might have made recent investments compared to others who been around a long time. It inflates profitability for companies that aggressively capitalise costs. EBIT (Earnings before Interest and Taxes) ignores the composition of capital structure i.e. extent of Debt involved (like EBITDA). Useful in comparing across industries which might have different tax

Read more

What is the KPIT Birlasoft (de)merger about?

Did you know KPIT Technologies is one of the earliest Indian IT Software companies to go public way back in 1999? After Infosys listed in June 1993, it took a while for the other companies in the sector to start going public. The current flagbearer for the Indian IT sector, TCS, did not list until 11 years later, in 2004. By then, KPIT had already been a publicly listed company for nearly five years. In January 2018, management of KPIT proposed a merger and demerger with the C.K.Birla groups privately held IT Services company, Birlasoft. Wait, merger and demerger? The

Read more

5 ways finance professionals are like football players

This Sunday, France won the 2018 world cup in an uncharacteristically high-scoring final against Croatia. The 6 goals scored in this final equal the total goals in the last 4 world cup finals before this. One other standout about the final was there weren’t many fouls. This got me thinking. Going by the time they spend lying on the ground clutching some part of their body, football players seem to get seriously injured a lot more than other sportspersons. Why is that? Logically, one (or more) of three reasons must apply as the cause of frequent injuries in football: Football

Read more

What did they not tell us about long-term investing

This post was first published on capitalmind.in A picture is worth a thousand words No pain, No gain Money can’t buy happiness   Or the more contemporary: Privacy is a myth If you’re not paying for it, you are the product They are insightful phrases, originally by wise and often witty people. They convey one powerful idea in a short statement that would take most people pages to describe. Just that they have been used so often in literature and conversation as to have no more insight to offer. A test for whether something someone says is a truism is,

Read more

How Indian investors can invest in foreign equities

Why Indian investors should (also) look overseas Pop quiz: What is notable about these names? ICBC China Construction Bank Agricultural Bank of China Bank of China Ping An Insurance Group No points for saying they are all Chinese companies. Here is another set of names as a clue: JP Morgan Chase Berkshire Hathaway Bank of America Wells Fargo Apple These are more recognisable American companies. What could they have in common with the first set of companies? More than might be intuitive: The 10 companies mentioned above are the top 10 largest publicly-traded companies in the world. In fact, three

Read more