Making sense of sector valuation multiples

This post was also published on capitalmind.in In Short Valuation multiples (EV/EBIT: Enterprise Value / Earnings before Interest & Taxes) are indicators of investor willingness-to-pay for future earnings growth Some sectors currently see a narrow range of multiples while others see broad ranges Analysis of what drives multiples suggests three key metrics: Sales growth, Return on Capital Employed (ROCE), and Cash-Flow from Operations as % of Net Profit are the key factors driving valuation multiples Current multiples might be overly optimistic for some sectors and overly pessimistic for others A chart first to set context. Range of enterprise value (EV/EBIT)

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The most profitable industries in India in 2019

“Why so glum? It’s friday afternoon for crying out loud” (A senior executive to his subordinate) Subordinate: “See this pile of resumes? All applicants for that open role on our team. I’ll spend the best part of the weekend shortlisting this lot.” Senior Exec: (picks up pile, splits into two. Tosses one half into the trash can) Shocked Subordinate: “What about finding the best person for the role?!” Senior Exec: “Who needs unlucky people on the team. Enjoy your weekend.” Think of the pile as companies you could invest in. Sure you could comb through each one to find the

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Tough times don’t last, High ROC Companies do

Does an investing strategy that invests in high Return on Capital companies deliver better returns than the market? This post backtests the strategy by simulating investment in deciles of companies with varying ROCs. The results support the hypothesis that a strategy that invests in high ROC companies does better.

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The most profitable industries in India in 2018

This post presents aggregated analysis of the most and least profitable industries in India in 2018. Profitability is described by different accounting metrics, each one with its own merits and drawbacks. EBITDA (Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) is useful when comparing companies within a sector where some participants might have made recent investments compared to others who been around a long time. It inflates profitability for companies that aggressively capitalise costs. EBIT (Earnings before Interest and Taxes) ignores the composition of capital structure i.e. extent of Debt involved (like EBITDA). Useful in comparing across industries which might have different tax

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What did they not tell us about long-term investing

This post was first published on capitalmind.in A picture is worth a thousand words No pain, No gain Money can’t buy happiness   Or the more contemporary: Privacy is a myth If you’re not paying for it, you are the product They are insightful phrases, originally by wise and often witty people. They convey one powerful idea in a short statement that would take most people pages to describe. Just that they have been used so often in literature and conversation as to have no more insight to offer. A test for whether something someone says is a truism is,

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Does sector-picking trump stock-picking?

What do Agrochemicals, Food Products and Household Appliances have in common? What do Telecom Services, Oil Exploration & Production and Electric Utilities have in common? The first set is three of the best performing sectors in India in terms of stock market returns over the last ten years. The second set, you guessed it, is three of the worst performing sectors for stock market investors. Chart shows the top 10 best and worst performing sectors in India in terms of investor returns from 2008 to 2018 Note that cumulative returns here mean median of CAGR returns within each sector Does this

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Debt in Indian Companies

How much debt have Indian companies taken on over the last few years? Chart shows the aggregate debt on the balance sheets of listed Indian companies from 2008 to 2017. Note this is from a sample of ~ 1,000 largest companies by market cap. Since 2008, total debt has grown by 3.7X from 7.6 Lakh Crores (USD 116.8 Billion) to 28.3 Lakh Crores (USD 434.9 Billion) in constant currency terms. For context, the lines on the chart show total debt as a percentage of market cap and of country GDP (unadjusted for inflation). Which brings us to the natural question: Which

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Fastest growing sectors in India

India Sector Sales Growth Chart shows aggregate Sales Growth by sector from 2008 to 2017, ordered by top 40 sectors by Sales in FY17. The growth columns show compounded growth rates broken into two periods, 2008 to 2014 and from 2014 to 2017. The red shaded cells in the ’14 – ’17 column show sectors that have seen negative sales growth in the last three years. The green shaded cells highlight the sectors that have grown faster in the last three years than in the six years before that. Banks continue to be the largest sector by revenue over the

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India’s top sectors over the years

India Sector Market Cap Rankings Graphic shows sectors that have been in the top 10 sectors by aggregate market capitalisation in India over the last ten years. Top 10 rows in the table correspond to the rank as of March 2018. The final ‘CAGR’ column shows annualized growth rate in market cap over the same period. Takeaways 20 different sectors have been in the top 10 largest sectors by market cap at some point from 2008 to 2018 implying significant churn in investor interest However, the current top 3 market cap sectors, Banking, IT Consulting & Software, Pharmaceuticals in addition

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