How likely is a 12% return over the long term?

A recent tweet citing Mint analysis talks about how the probability of higher returns increases with increasing investment horizon. The numbers looked a bit off, so I recreated the analysis using the Nifty 50 Total Returns Index. The numbers in each of the cells are higher than what is shown in the analysis cited in … Read more

The best-performing Nifty Indices in charts

NSE has a ton of equity indices, 96 of them. Removing a bunch of the repetitive ones, we are still left with over 50. Chart below shows their CAGR since inception. All the way from 23% (Midcap150 Momentum50) to -3% (Realty). The Nifty has clocked 14% over 24 years. Worst drawdowns. Realty fell 93% from … Read more

FOMO as a Sales tool

The typical Amazon product page has almost 10 elements meant to nudge us to buy the product. All businesses utilise FOMO-nudges to stand out in a crowded marketplace to sell. Investing is no different. But FOMO as a sales tool in investing looks different. As of writing this, markets have been recovering and making new highs. There will be no shortage of sales nudges implying innate brilliance and visions of quick returns. The more you understand them, the less effective the nudges become.

Plan less, Live More

This post was first published on An engineer, a chemist, and an economist were on a ship that capsized. They clamber onto a lifeboat with nothing but the clothes on their backs. The lifeboat just about manages to get them to a tiny deserted island before it breaks apart. Just as it goes down, … Read more

Fact, Fiction and Factor Investing

This post was originally published on and is a summary of a recent paper, which is the post’s title, published by AQR in Jan 2023. It is a must-read for any investor trying to understand quantitative factor investing better. Since I hear from clients about the very myths and misconceptions tackled in this paper, … Read more