Plan less, Live More

This post was first published on An engineer, a chemist, and an economist were on a ship that capsized. They clamber onto a lifeboat with nothing but the clothes on their backs. The lifeboat just about manages to get them to a tiny deserted island before it breaks apart. Just as it goes down, … Read more

Certainty is absurd

Disclaimer: This post was first published on is a question without an answer. It is also not about investing. In the winter of 1799, George Washington, the first President of the United States, is living a peaceful retirement at his plantation, Mount Vernon. On December 12, he spends much of the day outside in … Read more

Notes from Outlive: The Science and Art of Longevity by Peter Attia

Most books on health and/or fitness tend to focus on one isolated aspect. Either they refer to one very specific type of diet or to an exercise regimen. Even within the books that are credible, it’s crazy how much contradictory evidence is out there. The problem is our bodies are varied, and what works for … Read more

Fact, Fiction and Factor Investing

This post was originally published on and is a summary of a recent paper, which is the post’s title, published by AQR in Jan 2023. It is a must-read for any investor trying to understand quantitative factor investing better. Since I hear from clients about the very myths and misconceptions tackled in this paper, … Read more

The stock does not know you own it

An image search of the title of this post will tell you Warren Buffett said it, just like most profound things on investing and life. Except, he did not.

The stock does not know you own it, is, in fact, from the book: The Money Game by George Goodman, written under the illustrious pen name of Adam Smith.

This single line ‘The stock does not know you own it,” if internalised, is one of the most potent investing concepts

Identities or Beliefs

From sports teams we enthusiastically support, to the kind of consumers we are, our religion, and our political affiliation, we all carry around multiple identities. Things we feel deeply about and form a part of us.

But this can be a problem when it comes to investing. Here’s why, as investors, we should stay away from identities and instead examine our core investing beliefs.

Should you invest at market highs?

This post was first published on Indian markets have been making new highs lately. Naturally, the most frequent question doing the rounds is: Should you invest at market highs? The question tends to be phrased as “Isn’t it just plain dumb to be investing at market highs? Should I a) stop investing more and … Read more

What Cathie Wood gets right

So, Cathie Wood, in a recent Bloomberg interview, predicted Bitcoin will be $1 Million by 2030.

For reference, as of writing, BTC is $16.5k. So, about a 6000% increase from here.

Like with most things she says, a reaction-frenzy follows. It makes you wonder why a fund manager, down over 60% for the year, would make such an outrageous prediction. Why not a sedate $100K, which would still mean a 600% increase?

The BTC $1M prediction makes perfect sense when you unpack Ark’s marketing strategy.

The futility of analyst recommendations

We analysed over 2,000 analyst recommendations (upgrades and downgrades) made by institutional equity analysts over the last ten years for the 50 Nifty stocks. We measured the 60-day return on the stock after the recommendation to see how those analyst recommendations fared.

Here’s what we found