Brace for negative returns in 2018

Predicting stock markets is a futile exercise. You only need to compare historical predictions versus actual market movements to come to this conclusion. When bulge bracket investment banks and powerhouse economists with their multi-factor models of staggering complexity get them wrong more often than right, should the rest of us even bother trying to predict markets? No, we shouldn’t. At least not to time entries and exits. In preparing for battle, I have found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable – Dwight Eisenhower Replace “plans” with forecasts, “planning” with forecasting, and “indispensable” with “mildly useful”, and that’s how

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Why the Nifty is falling and the futility of forecasts

People in the market aren’t happy. This wasn’t how it was supposed to go. Not after a landmark electoral mandate and all the promises it held. The professionals were unanimous. India was poised for takeoff and so were India’s stock markets… Dec 2014: Nifty to hit 9,500 by end-2015 on capital inflows: Goldman Sachs (link) Nov 2014: UBS sees Nifty at 9,600 by 2015-end (link) Sep 2014: See Nifty at 10,700 by Dec 2015: Bank NIfty to lead: JM Financial (link) But looks like noone told the Nifty. Departing from script, after steadily rising to the cusp of 9,000 at the beginning of March 2015, it

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