Which value metric works best?

I recently undertook a quick and dirty backtest on NIFTY stocks to verify whether buying a portfolio of the cheapest index stocks and rebalancing annually would beat the broader index. In spite of the fairly short period under test (nine years from 2008 to 2017), if you’re a value investor, the results are encouraging. From Sep 2008 to Aug 2017, ignoring transaction costs and dividends, a 10 stock value portfolio returned 18% annually compared to 9.8% for the NIFTY. The details of the test and outcomes are in the post ‘Can buying cheap NIFTY stocks beat the index‘ For this test,

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Predicting stock market returns

At a glance While predicting market performance is nearly impossible, there are lessons to be learnt from looking at past performance We take the predictive power of three popular valuation metrics; Price-to-Earnings, Price-to-Book and Dividend Yield P/E as a valuation metric performs better than P/B and yield as a lead indicator of annual returns As of early Jan 2015, the Nifty is trading at 21.2x earnings, more expensive than 80% of all trading days in the last 16 years Higher the P/E at the time of purchase, lower the returns achieved for the Nifty Current P/E levels indicate marginally negative

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Election fever and deciding when to buy

In the fire hydrant post, I mentioned how every potential investor is inundated with a barrage of news / opinions / techniques to do his investing. It doesn’t help that financial news editors like using words like “surge” and “plunge” for routine market movements in their headlines. In addition, the investor has to contend with the enemy within – Mr. Market who exhorts him to jump in with both feet when markets rise and to dump everything when they drop. The Calm Investor doesn’t let the noise or his own biases stampede him into thinking of the stock market as a casino in Las

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