A recent tweet citing Mint analysis talks about how the probability of higher returns increases with increasing investment horizon. The numbers looked a bit off, so I recreated the analysis using the Nifty 50 Total Returns Index. The numbers in each of the cells are higher than what is shown in the analysis cited in … Read more
My top 10 highlights from the book: The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of prediction by Nate Silver
My top 10 highlights from the book: The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports and Investing by Michael Mauboussin
NSE has a ton of equity indices, 96 of them. Removing a bunch of the repetitive ones, we are still left with over 50. Chart below shows their CAGR since inception. All the way from 23% (Midcap150 Momentum50) to -3% (Realty). The Nifty has clocked 14% over 24 years. Worst drawdowns. Realty fell 93% from … Read more
This post is also published on capitalmind.in By now everyone has heard about chatgpt, and most likely other publicly available Large Language Models (LLMs) like Anthromorphic’s claude, Google’s Bard and Microsoft’s Bing Chat (built on chatgpt). Predictably there are hundreds of takes about the impact of AI on work and life in general. Depending on … Read more
This post was first published on capitalmind.in Last quarter, there were 484 mentions of ROCE in the filings of just the 50 Nifty companies. ROCE stands for “Return on Capital Employed.”: how well a company is generating profits from its capital. It is considered a critical part of the puzzle of finding quality businesses. ROCE … Read more
The typical Amazon product page has almost 10 elements meant to nudge us to buy the product. All businesses utilise FOMO-nudges to stand out in a crowded marketplace to sell. Investing is no different. But FOMO as a sales tool in investing looks different. As of writing this, markets have been recovering and making new highs. There will be no shortage of sales nudges implying innate brilliance and visions of quick returns. The more you understand them, the less effective the nudges become.
This post was first published on capitalmind.in An engineer, a chemist, and an economist were on a ship that capsized. They clamber onto a lifeboat with nothing but the clothes on their backs. The lifeboat just about manages to get them to a tiny deserted island before it breaks apart. Just as it goes down, … Read more