Common sense position sizing for investors

Good traders worry all the time about blowing up. So they cap their exposure to any single position. Most active investors have the opposite problem. They tend to be under-allocated to their best investments. How much to allocate to active positions deserves some attention. This post looks at a few common-sense rules about position sizing for investors.

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Where is India’s Amazon?

This article was first published on capitalmind.in In 2019, Amazon made $281 Bn in revenue. Up 20% from 2018. That is the combined revenue of the top-5 revenue-earning Indian companies: Reliance, IOCL, ONGC, BPCL and SBI. A year later, in 2020, Amazon clocked $386 Bn, growing 37%. Put another way, Amazon added 1.4 times the total annual revenue of Reliance Industries as incremental revenue in 2020. Chart shows Amazon’s meteoric revenue growth since 1997: Yes, some of that growth in 2020 was aided by the pandemic but is not an aberration. Since going public 24 years ago, its annualized revenue growth rate is 41%.

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The Observer Effect and how it messes with investment returns

There is a formal theory called ‘The Observer Effect‘ in science that is to do with how the presence of an observer determines the outcome of a phenomenon. This article is only loosely related, not as deep, and probably more fun. Think about a time when, on a lazy Sunday mid-morning, a distant out-of-town relative called out of the blue and said they happen to be visiting their son in your city, will be passing close to where you live, and would like to come over, today, in an hour! Please don’t go to any trouble. Or imagine, at work,

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HSBC Focused Equity Fund: Should you invest?

[This post was first published on capitalmind.in] HSBC has launched an NFO (New Fund Offering) for a Multi-Cap Equity Mutual Fund. The NFO is open from 1st to 15th July 2020. We took a look to see if it makes sense for investors. Short Answer: Unlike Large Cap funds that produce similar returns and underperform low-cost ETFs, Multicap funds see significant performance dispersion. So it matters which fund you pick. Unless you have reason to believe the fund managers of this new fund bring a unique advantage to the table, you are better off with funds with a track record.

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How to think about Asset Allocation in India – Part 1

Getting usual Asset allocation advice is like listening to in-flight safety demonstrations. The airline crew has to go through the motions, and you don’t even have to pretend to listen. 

That’s because the way we think and talk about Asset Allocation is broken. Asset Allocation is NOT about settling for lower return in exchange for lower volatility. 

In Part 1 of this two-part post, we examine the evidence how an actual and implementable asset allocation strategy outperforms an equity-only strategy. In Part 2 we’ll look at a few allocation scenarios and take a stab at what we think works best for most investors.

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Time the Market. Sleep Better.

This post was first published on capitalmind.in As of 9th May 2020: Gold (+48%) has outperformed Nifty (-19%) by 67%. In one year. You can not time the market. But wait… Imagine if you had known this chart back in May 2019. Heck, back in Feb 2020 would’ve worked too. But you can not. Because timing the market is impossible. Which is why you should buy (or SIP) and hold. End of story? Not quite. To start with, let’s keep it simple and not pretend that we could have predicted Gold’s performance. But could we have gotten out of the

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Motilal Oswal’s S&P500 Index Fund: Should you Invest?

This post was first published on capitalmind.in Motilal Oswal has launched an NFO (New Fund Offering) for its S&P500 Index Fund. The NFO is open from 15th to 23rd April 2020. We took a look to see if it make sense for Indian investors. Short Answer: The launch of a fund tracking a major US Index is a step in the right direction. But it’s not necessarily the best way for Indian investors to invest in the US. Let’s make sure we’re clear on the reasons. The S&P500 has outperformed the NIFTY more times than not over the last decade.

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Forget Stocks for a bit. Get your Asset Allocation right

This article was first published on capitalmind.in You’ve heard of the three C’s by now. Courage. Cash. Conviction. You’re probably sick of them already. For the uninitiated, the three C’s are meant to galvanize the timid investor trying hard to avert her gaze from a screen dripping red. Don’t you know, they say, if your horizon is longterm, you can’t go wrong with equities? Equities outperform everything else out there. But great victory demands great sacrifice.  So build Conviction, be Courageous, and deploy that Cash! Three C’s. But where’s the cash? You wonder to yourself. Weren’t the same C’s called

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