Fundamental Analysis Tools for Investors in India

In the course of finding the most time-efficient way of analyzing companies shortlisted for investment, I’ve come across various tools available to Indian investors. This post compiles a list of some of the tools that I’ve tried either briefly or extensively along with some of their key strengths and weaknesses. Note that this list is far from comprehensive and also that digested analysis from any source is typically only a starting point and not a substitute for diving into past annual reports to gain context of the fundamentals. Overall note of caution on using any tool that aggregates data is to assume

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Why March 2020 feels so bad and Should you Buy yet?

This post was first published on capitalmind.in Indian Markets (NIFTY) fell another 6% today (18th March), taking 2020 YTD performance to -26%. NIFTY is now at 8,469. That lifetime high close of 12,362 on 14th Jan feels exactly that. A lifetime ago. Is this the worst correction we’ve seen in India? Not just since 2008, but since forever? Not by a long way. The dot-com bubble collapse of 2000 and the 2008 financial crisis were much deeper falls from their respective peaks. But there’s no denying that now feels particularly bad. I suspect there are two reasons: Reason #1: We

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Which Tax Saving ELSS fund should I invest in?

This post was first published on capitalmind.in Pop quiz. Let’s say on March 2nd, 2015 (5 years ago), you invested ₹100 in the HDFC Tax Saver Fund, and another ₹100 in the HDFC Liquid Fund. Which do you think is worth more today? The Liquid Fund or the Tax Saver Fund? I even tell you, one of the ₹100 investments has grown to ₹141, and the other to ₹117. Which is which? The liquid fund beat the pants off the actively managed Equity Fund with an annual return of 7.12% versus 3.26%. Not even close. Chart below shows how the

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Calm Investor on Paisa Vaisa

Had the opportunity to sit down with Anupam Gupta (@b50 on twitter) to talk about investing on the paisa vaisa podcast. Paisa Vaisa incidentally won the ‘Best Business Podcast’ award for Asia. Blurb from the ivmpodcasts.com page: How people get their forecast wrong about the stock market? What is Warren Buffett investing strategy? Why is it difficult to emulate Warren Buffett investing style? In the episode, Anoop answers all your queries and shares his blogging journey. He also talks about what we must look at before choosing a financial advisor, and more about the stock market.

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The complete list of 2020 stock recommendations

This has become an interesting annual exercise where I track stocks recommended at the end of the year by the various research houses from big investment banks to brokerages. After all, there are the folks with high-powered research teams equipped with bloomberg terminals. You would expect them to outperform the simplest way you could invest, i.e. buying the index. Recap of how the professionals did in 2019 Here’s how the professionals did. The 13 research teams I tracked recommended a total of 98 stocks (with overlaps). If you had invested equal amounts of money in their stock picks, you would

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Does Momentum Investing work in India

This post was first published on capitalmind.in In Short Contrary to how it might seem in financial media, momentum as an investment strategy has been around for the better part of a century. Empirical studies going as far back as 1801 have shown momentum works, not just in equities, but across asset classes. Momentum outperforms broader markets. Momentum outperforms benchmarks in India. We extensively backtest a momentum strategy against portfolios of randomly selected stocks, and against the benchmark indices. But the outperformance comes at the cost of higher volatility and higher point-in-time drawdowns in the short-term. Stick with it though,

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Does Buying Expensive Quality Stocks Work?

This post first appeared on capitalmind.in It’s the 1960s. New investors join the markets in droves. The number of shareholders crosses a landmark number for the first time in history.  Most of these new investors flock to mutual funds.  Assets under Management, having grown 7x in the last decade, are on track to grow more than 3x. A star fund manager breaks away from the firm that he helped make the face of the mutual fund industry to start his own. His NFO seeks to raise $25M, an ambitious amount for the time. He plans to charge as much as

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The Best Health Advice that’s worked for me

No Net Worth number compensates for needing a neck, back, knee brace to get through the day. The good thing, unlike time, being in the best physical / mental state you can be is not a perishable commodity. It takes more work depending on how much you’ve let it slide, and yes, the raw material, your genes. Anyone, irrespective of age or gender, can improve, whatever their current state. This post summarizes the best health advice I have received and implemented to see benefits. I have been moderately physically active in some shape or form since my late teens. It

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Making sense of sector valuation multiples

This post was also published on capitalmind.in In Short Valuation multiples (EV/EBIT: Enterprise Value / Earnings before Interest & Taxes) are indicators of investor willingness-to-pay for future earnings growth Some sectors currently see a narrow range of multiples while others see broad ranges Analysis of what drives multiples suggests three key metrics: Sales growth, Return on Capital Employed (ROCE), and Cash-Flow from Operations as % of Net Profit are the key factors driving valuation multiples Current multiples might be overly optimistic for some sectors and overly pessimistic for others A chart first to set context. Range of enterprise value (EV/EBIT)

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The smelting of Indian stocks

This post was first published on capitalmind.in Markets have been getting smashed over the last 12-18 months, dramatic corporate tax reform notwithstanding. But because our benchmark index views are market-cap weighted, they don’t do justice to the phenomenal destruction in value across the board. Overall, the 1,900 companies we analysed, went from a market cap of Rs 1,46,19,230 Crores ($ 2.1 Trillion) in the middle of 2018, to currently about Rs 1,37,95,850 Crores ($ 1.97 Trillion).  Wait. That’s a 6% decline in a little over 12 months. What’s all the hand-wringing pessimism about then? Maybe we’ve just been spoilt by

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